Market Perspective

Week in Perspective 08 April 2016

Market roundup – The FTSE 100 was up slightly over the week, moved here and there by the fluctuating price of oil and other commodities. Economic outlook – Services and industrial production growth is uninspiring, but house prices have yet again bucked sluggish trends. Company focus – Marks & Spencer. Economic highlights over the coming…

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Week in Perspective 29 January 2016

Market roundup – The week got off to a jittery start, failing to meaningfully extend the bounce seen at the start of the previous week. Economic outlook – In a surprise move on Friday, the Bank of Japan introduced a negative interest rate that will see commercial banks charged for some deposits. Company focus –…

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Market Perspective – October 2014

A healthy market is not a comfortable market Market Commentary The equity market is not meant to be a comfortable place to invest. It is meant to be stressful. Equities are risky assets and risk is uncomfortable, that is why we demand higher returns for investing in equities. Risk, therefore, is a healthy part of…

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New Year's Data

Hopefully everyone has enjoyed a festive fortnight but during that time the global economy has continued whirring away. We take this opportunity to review the last couple of weeks’ data to see whether it still fits with our view of the world: Although there was plenty of news to feast upon, we find nothing really…

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2014 Perspective

Built to last… In 2014 we expect the FTSE to reach 7,400; the S&P to hit 1,940; and the Nikkei to breach to 18,000. We have long argued that this is a long and arduous recovery… …but fortunately that bodes reasonably well for equity returns. Interest hikes tend to foretell the end of the bull…

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The Week In Perspective

Market Roundup The FTSE 100 got off to a poor start on Monday, finishing the session down over 0.8%. Companies in the Mining sector were among the largest losers, as falling metals prices weighed on performance. Gold was particularly notable, with the precious metal’s price dropping 2.1% over the session. Other sectors lower on the…

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Great CAPEs?

The CAPE is a long-term valuation measure that has been around for nearly a century It suggests US equities are expensive…  …but it is difficult to use it for predictive purposes. We can enhance it, but we still find problems with the economic logic behind it. However, we still find plenty of premium for those…

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UK GDP not so Deeply Dippy

The service sector seems to have helped UK GDP avoid a triple dip recession. GDP rose 0.3% quarter on quarter which was higher than forecasters expected (0.1%) Over the longer term however the GDP outlook remains challenging. It’s certainly nice to avoid a triple dip recession although the difference between “no growth” and “low growth”…

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February: Discerning Returns

A fairly indiscriminate rally since November petered out in February with investors becoming more discerning about the assets they want to hold. Why this change in mood? Political, economic and corporate considerations have played their part. The earnings season in Europe rather ran out of steam with around 51% of companies having beaten earnings estimates…

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Moody’s pounds sterling

The immediate implications of the UK’s downgrade of its long term credit rating are fairly benign The resulting weakness of the pound will be hailed by some as a boon to the export sector, certainly it will be a boon to the FTSE’s overseas earnings The more troubling aspect is that it further diminishes the…

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